The cellular industry's implementation of 5G networks has been ongoing for several years now, yet the industry is still searching for the "killer app" that will establish 5G as the pinnacle of cellular technology. However, even without a definitive use case, 5G is fulfilling its intended purpose, albeit partially.
5G Networks Show Promise, But Face Hurdles in Meeting Expectations
Despite being hailed as the next big thing in cellular technology, 5G networks have yet to live up to the high expectations set for them. While 5G networks continue to offer faster and better services than their 4G counterparts, their upload and download times have decreased over the past year, according to Ookla, a network diagnostics company. Additionally, even the most advanced 5G networks are struggling to reach the International Telecommunication Union's recommended download speed of 20 Gb/s, with the most robust networks barely surpassing 1 Gb/s.
As the cellular industry's 5G networks continue to expand, the usual growth challenges experienced by every new cellular generation are emerging once again. As more customers invest in 5G-enabled devices, network upload and download times are declining worldwide compared to 5G service from a year ago. Mark Giles, an industry analyst at network diagnostics company Ookla, explains that this is typical of every new generation of cellular technology, as initial deployments of 4G also had ample capacity to support early users. However, as more users come on board, densification is necessary to maintain capacity and ensure the network's continued growth.
Failing to build out millimeter-wave networks hasn’t helped 5G through its growing pains.
Mark Giles, an industry analyst at Ookla, notes that most network operators started their 5G deployments by implementing non-standalone networks. These types of 5G networks are built on top of the existing 4G network infrastructure and, while not as powerful as standalone 5G, are more cost-effective and easier to deploy. This deployment approach has resulted in some of the initial issues with 5G's performance, but Giles suggests that as the technology continues to evolve and more users come on board, standalone 5G networks will become more prevalent and performance will improve.
As the cellular industry continues to roll out 5G networks, it has faced various hurdles, including regulatory and permitting challenges. According to industry experts, the main obstacle in deploying 5G networks is that most network operators started by implementing non-standalone 5G, which is built on top of existing 4G infrastructure, making it easier and less costly to deploy. However, this approach limits the ability to build 5G networks in new areas and where new cell sites are needed, especially in dense urban areas. Operators are encountering challenges in finding suitable locations to install new cell sites, which has slowed down the deployment of 5G.
As 5G networks continue to expand beyond urban areas, the industry is discovering new hurdles to overcome. While the millimeter-wave band offers the promise of faster speeds and lower latencies, these benefits come with a price: these frequencies do not travel as far, and therefore are better suited for urban environments than for rural ones. As a result, network performance is expected to decrease as more people begin to use 5G networks in areas that are farther from the urban core. The challenge for the cellular industry is to find a way to expand 5G coverage without compromising its performance.
Despite the numerous benefits that millimeter-wave bands offer for 5G networks, there has been little uptake of these frequencies in most countries. In fact, only a few countries, including the United States, have implemented millimeter-wave bands to a limited extent. Major players in the telecommunications industry, such as Verizon, who were previously optimistic about millimeter-wave bands, have since shifted their focus to newly available bands, such as the C-band (4 to 8 GHz), which have shown promising results for 5G network deployment.
According to Mark Giles, an industry analyst at Ookla, data from the Global mobile Suppliers Organization (GSA) reveals that as of 2022, out of the 140 operators in 24 countries that hold millimeter-wave licenses, only 28 in 16 countries are actively deploying it. This highlights that there is a relatively small group of operators pursuing this technology, making it a very minute fraction of the overall industry.
The aspirational 5G download speed of 20 Gb/s originally cited by the International Telecommunication Union is still just that—aspirational.
Despite the promising features of millimeter-wave, it has found little use outside of specific scenarios such as airports and sports stadiums where congestion is high. The failure to incorporate millimeter-wave as a core component of 5G networks, regardless of the reasons why, has undoubtedly hindered the growth of 5G and its ability to overcome challenges associated with the growth of the network.
As cellular networks continue to advance in complexity, achieving theoretical maximum download speeds becomes increasingly challenging and elusive. Even the ambitious download speed target of 20 Gb/s put forth by the ITU is unlikely to be realized, according to industry analyst Mark Giles. This target is only attainable under ideal conditions, such as with an abundance of spectrum bundled together, an advanced device, no other users on the cell, and perfect weather conditions.
The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) has set the "user experience data rate" as the more attainable benchmark for 5G networks. This rate is set at 100 megabits per second for downloads and 50 Mb/s for uploads. Despite the decline in speeds over the past year, many countries are still meeting this benchmark for the median 5G network experience.
According to Ookla's speed-test data, the extent of 5G performance degradation varies across different countries. However, there are a few countries that are outperforming the others, such as Canada, Italy, Qatar, and the United States. Despite this, Mark Giles, an industry analyst at Ookla, does not think that these countries necessarily share any common factor that would explain their superior 5G network performance.
In the case of the United States, Giles opines that greater access to new spectrum has aided operators in the country in keeping pace with the increasing congestion on the nascent networks. Conversely, in Qatar, the significant investments made for the 2022 FIFA World Cup included extensive development of robust 5G infrastructure.
The impact of 5G's initial struggles on the development of 6G remains to be seen, but there are several potential implications. One possibility is that, in light of the underwhelming launch of millimeter-wave technology, the industry may reduce its focus on terahertz-wave research and instead explore how cellular and Wi-Fi technologies could be combined in areas that demand dense coverage.
"I think it’s revealing the disconnect between the vision for these Gs and what’s actually on the ground,” Giles says. “I think that’s what this degradation is really highlighting."
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