Artificial General Intelligence: Experts Warn Against Overestimating Development Potential
The Current Hype Surrounding AI
Claims of Inevitable Advancement
AI surpassing the human brain is deemed inevitable by employees at OpenAI, Google DeepMind and similar tech companies. However, researchers from Radboud University and other institutions have released new findings, now published in Computational Brain & Behavior, showing that claims are exaggerated and unlikely to materialize.
Expert Insights on AGI Development
The Impossibility of Human-Level Cognition
Iris van Rooij, lead author and professor of Computational Cognitive Science at Radboud University, asserts that developing artificial general intelligence (AGI) with human-level cognition is "Impossible." As head of the Cognitive Science and AI department, she leads this critical analysis.
Theoretical vs. Practical Feasibility
"While some contend that AGI is achievable in theory, arguing that it's just a matter of time before computers can think like humans, theory alone isn't sufficient to make it a reality. Our paper illustrates why pursuing this goal is misguided and a waste of valuable resources," explains van Rooij.
Endless Possibilities Powered by Finite Capabilities
A Thought Experiment on Ideal Conditions
In their publication, the researchers propose a thought experiment that envisions the development of AGI under perfect conditions.
Limitations Even Under Optimal Conditions
Olivia Guest, co-author and assistant professor at Radboud University in Computational Cognitive Science, remarks, "For the sake of argument, we propose that engineers have access to perfect datasets and the most efficient machine learning tools. But despite these advantages, no viable method exists to deliver what big tech companies claim."
The Challenge of Replicating Human Cognition
This is due to the fact that cognition--the capacity to observe, learn, and acquire new insights--is extremely challenging to replicate in AI at the scale seen in the human brain.
As van Rooij explains, "In conversation, you might recall a statement from fifteen minutes ago, a year ago, or even a distant memory from your childhood. Such knowledge could be vital in moving the conversation forward, and people do this naturally."
"There will never be enough computational capacity to develop AGI using machine learning, as we would deplete our natural resources long before reaching that level of advancement," adds Olivia Guest.
The Importance of Critical AI Literacy
A Collaborative Effort Across Disciplines
This paper represents a collaborative effort among researchers from Radboud University, Aarhus University, The University of Amsterdam, Memorial University of Newfoundland, and the University of Bayreuth, integrating insights from Cognitive Science, Neuroscience, Philosophy, and Computer Science.
Risks of Misunderstanding AI Capabilities
The researchers caution that the current enthusiasm for AI poses a risk of misapprehending the capabilities of both humans and AI systems.
Evaluating AI Claims Through Cognitive Science
It is surprising how few recognize the importance of cognitive science in evaluating assertions about AI capabilities. "We tend to exaggerate what computers can do, while greatly undervaluing the capabilities of human cognition," explains van Rooij.
Fostering a Deeper Understanding of AI
Developing critical AI literacy is essential to empower individuals with the ability to discern the viability of assertions made by large tech corporations. If a new firm claims to have invented a device that can bring about world peace with a mere button press, it would be prudent to question that claim.
"Why do we readily accept the assurances of large tech companies motivated by profit? Our aim is to foster a deeper understanding of AI systems, enabling everyone to critically assess the claims made by the technology sector."
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