Satellite Mega-Constellations Are a 'House of Cards' Scientists Warn in Alarming News Study
A Classic Phrase for a Modern Space Crisis
"House of cards" is a classic English phrase, though today it is often linked with a popular Netflix political drama. Its original meaning, however, describes a structure that is inherently unstable—a definition that fits uncomfortably well with today's satellite mega-constellations. That is the phrase used by Sarah Thiele, formerly a PhD student at the University of British Columbia and now at Princeton, and her co-authors in a new preprint paper on arXiv.
Their choice of words is well supported by the numbers. Across all low-Earth-orbit (LEO) mega-constellations, a "close approach"—defined as two satellites passing within one kilometer of each other—occurs every 22 seconds.
Starlink Alone Faces Constant Collision Threats
- Starlink satellites encounter close approaches roughly every 11 minutes
- Each satellite performs around 41 avoidance manoeuvres per year
- Thousand of satellites must continuously burn fuel to stay safe
When Routine Operations Hide Systemic Risk
At first glance, this may sound like a tightly managed system functioning as intended. Yet engineers know that most failures arise from "edge cases"—rare events outside normal operating conditions. According to the study, solar storms represent one such risk for satellite mega-constellations, typically affecting spacecraft operations in two key ways.
First, solar storms heat the upper atmosphere, increasing drag and introducing positional uncertainty for many satellites. Greater drag forces spacecraft to burn more fuel simply to hold their orbits, while also prompting evasive manoeuvres when trajectories threaten to intersect. During the so-called "Gannon Storm" of May 2024—despite the name having no link to a video-game villain—more than half of all satellites in low-Earth orbit were forced to expend fuel on repositioning manoeuvres.
Readers interested in how solar activity increasingly affects Earth systems can explore broader environmental impacts at Earth Day Harsh Reality, which frequently examines climate-space interactions and planetary stress signals.
When Satellites Lose Control
More seriously, solar storms can disable a satellite's navigation and communication systems altogether. When that happens, spacecraft are unable to steer clear of danger. Combined with heightened drag and orbital uncertainty, the result could be an almost immediate chain reaction of collisions.
The most familiar vision of such a scenario is the Kessler syndrome, in which a cloud of debris encircling Earth makes spaceflight virtually impossible. However, Kessler syndrome unfolds over decades. To highlight how quickly solar storms could trigger disaster, the authors introduce a new measure: the Collision Realization and Significant Harm or CRASH Clock.
The CRASH Clock and a Shrinking Margin for Error
The team's calculations paint a stark picture. As of June 2025, if satellite operators were to lose the ability to issue collision-avoidance commands, a catastrophic crash could occur in just 2.8 days. By comparison, similar modelling in 2018—before the rise of mega-constellations—suggested a window of 121 days. The scale of the growing risk is hard to ignore. More alarming still, a loss of control lasting only 24 hours carries a 30% chance of triggering a catastrophic collision, potentially seeding the decades-long cascade known as the Kessler syndrome.
Compounding the danger is the unpredictability of solar storms. They often provide little more than a day's warning, leaving few options beyond trying to shield vulnerable satellites. Yet the rapidly changing atmospheric conditions they create demand constant, real-time control. Should that control fail, the study warns, operators may have only days to restore it before the entire system collapses like a house of cards.
What is the CRASH Clock?
CRASH stands for Collision Realization and Significant Harm.
The CRASH Clock measures how long it would take for catastrophic satellite collisions to occur if operators lose control.
For more science-driven risk analysis and emerging global threats, readers can follow in-depth reporting at FSNews365, which covers space, physics and future-impact research.
A Historical Warning from the Sun
This is far from idle speculation. The 2024 Gannon storm was the most powerful solar event in decades, yet history records an even example: the Carrington Event of 1859. That storm remains the strongest ever observed, and a modern-day equivalent would likely disable our ability to control satellites for far longer than three days. In effect, a single solar outburst—one with a clear historical precedent—could cripple global satellite infrastructure and confine humanity to Earth for the foreseeable future.
The cascading consequences of losing global satellite services—communications, navigation, disaster response —also raise serious human-impact concerns. Broader discussions on technological risk and public safety can be found at Human Health Issues, which explores how systemic failures affect societies worldwide.
Balancing Innovation with Long-Term Space Safety
Few readers would welcome such an outcome. While there are undeniable benefits to the technological capabilities offered by low-Earth-orbit (LEO) mega-constellations, these must be weighed against the risk they pose to the future of space activity. When the prospect includes losing access to space for generations, informed decision-making becomes essential—and studies like this play a crucial role in shaping it.
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